Sunday EPL...

From previous posting.

Bolton drew the game. Level game.
Liverpool drew too, losing the handicap.

Back to Liverpool. This is a team that I'm liking better and better. Its not personal but I never found Dudek comfortable in front of the Anfiend posts, since he left, I knew the former manager, Houllier's prediction ,"We are turning the corner", has finally arrived. And they did with a Champions League title and a good running this season.

A club as big as Liverpool, ego doesn't permit it to be second-placed. Though the League Table speaks otherwise. It shouldn't lose at Stamford Bridge, against Chelsea, tonight. Definitely worth a backing-up with your dollar.

Another gem, Tottenham Hotspurs. Mido, Edgar Davids, Robbie Keane. Not that the latest addition Danny Murphy will get depth to the squad, but I feel he makes for a very decent back-up player. They are hosting Charlton tonight. And Jol will need 3-points against this mid-table team to push for Europe.

My guesses:

Liverpool +0.5
Spurs -0.5

Downfall of Portsmouth & The Rise of Liverpool...

Halfway through the EPL season, 3 things are for sure.

1) Chelsea will win the Premiership.
2) 2nd placing is up for grabs between Man U and Liverpool.
3) Sunderland will be relegated.

Portsmouth is likely to follow Sunderland though. Other than being 2nd from bottom with 17 points, which honestly speaking, aien't too bad considering there are 20 over games left and 15th-placed Aston Villa is only 8 points better.

Portsmouth just loaned 2 players, Argentina player Andres D'Alessandro and Wayne Routledge from Spurs. I'm telling you why,

1) The team is in no form and manager has no idea whats wrong, so 2 new players.
2) We all know soccer is about team work, not individual players. Plus Ronaldo or Robinho are not either one of the loaned players.

If I recall correctly(may be wrong), Saints and Wolves tried the same thing last season. What happened?

Bolton on the other hand, is in good form and pushing for Europe which they missed out on last year. Always an efficient outfit, what better time to fuel their cause than to dig in on tonight's away fixture?

Bolton giving 1/4 ball on away to Portsmouth. Some plates offering level ball. I cannot see Portsmouth winning.

Draw game or Bolton win.

And did I say Liverpool is in hot steak this year? Then what about Liverpool at Anfield against a Birmingham at 18th-spot? Liverpool giving a one-ball handicap at W68.

No brainer.

My Guess:
Bolton Lvl
Liverpool -1

Wrath of the Red Devils...

The Gunners are in solid winning form. Strong as the Gunners may be, they have a history for tripping when it matters most. The Red Devils, on the other hand, have often been able to perform miracles, occassionally.

Tonight is the night. They crash once more.

Lately, the Gunners are on better form where results are concerned as compared to the Devils. That explains why, with regard to the current trend and feel, market and punters will favour the Gunners to be the FA Cup holders.

Always go against the market.

Red Devils.... MAXIMUM STAKE.

HUAT!

A Disgraced Closet Fan...

I think every other soccer fan, probably with hardcore supporters of Man Utd or Liverpool, might just be closet fan of another club. There will always be other club which you, too, support, but was too ashamed to admit.

I too, am guilty of it. When I first started watching EPL like more than a decade ago, every Sunday, I would sit down and watch the Weekly Match Highlights in the late morning. I chose my favourite team by the colour and look of their jersey. I picked my team, but after a few months, I realise that they played like shit. I aien't no fan of this game play. I do not denounced my faith in the team, but I stopped talking about them. Deep down inside though, I was supporting them, the underdogs. Unglamourous as it may seem.

Finally, after so long, they have managed to make it onto the European Stage. Frankly speaking, I never doubted the quality of their players. Check out the number of internationals inside. But it was only lately that they gel as a team, took their chances and kept winning points. Its touching and how they managed to make it despite the odds. It only goes to show that, with some substances, determination and luck. Dreams can be actualised. Even if you do not manage to fulfil it, at least you would have tried. The process of trying is definitely more important than the goal itself, for without the former, you couldn't possibly attain the latter.

I wish them all the best in their adventures for the next season. I will again, secretly support them. Once again, I'm too ashamed of myself to name the team. They will be better off without a fairweather fan like me.

Anyhow, this other team, I'm not ashame to declare now. I'm also have affections for Southampton. Reason being, I'm a Saint, courtesy of heritage from my Alma Mater. Its just too bad that they are struggling now. I do hope they will see a better season next time round.

EPL- 25th April 2005. Gunners vs Spurs

With reference to the previous entry, I hate to report after so long, that both prediction sink. Big time.

Anyway, time to move on. Arsenal is without Thierry Henry and yet bookmakers are giving Tottenham a one ball advantage. Lets make it simple.

This is too sweet a deal, on the away team's side. The soccer fan will go for Spurs while the punters will definitely throw their bets on the Gunners.

Arsenal...give one ball. Maximum stake.

Good luck.

Champions League. Quarter Finals. 1st Leg.

AC MILAN vs INTER MILAN

It has been quite some time since CL was played and this week, we are entering the 1st Leg of Quarters.

Honestly speaking, I think AC Milan is a very likely candidate to win the Champions League. Most of their players, are in no short of quality and in very good form. Team work... checked. Just look at the way they tear defence to pieces, effortless at home.

Tonight, might be a different story though. Other than being a CL match, its also a derby match-up. Inter Milan, much as they have not been garnering much wins, have not been losing a lot too. They simply draw a lot. Most of the time, in ISA, they are unable to convert their dominance into goals and wins. Adriano is slowly gaining form in front of goal, however he may not be playing. So is Vieri, their old-time crucial frontline proacher.

Based on history and paper, it should be a very tight match. Opening handicap should be either AC giving 1/4 with high odds, or level ball with low odds for home.
On the bookmaker side, as of right now, a good 6 hours before the match. In the Asian Handicap market, AC is giving 1/4 to Inter. Odds on AsianBookie for home is 1.80, Ladbrokes is 1.76. Very low odds, an indication of the market's confidence that AC Milan will hump Inter Milan for this leg.

I on the other hand, has learned not to side the market too much. I will side with Inter Milan to put up a good defence and pin AC to at least a draw before the 2nd leg. I'm expecting to see AC piling on the pressure in the offence department tonight and Inter to try to neutralise it. It will be a good game and can swing either side.

I'm in with Inter Milan, at a 1/4 ball handicap. Minimum stakes on though.

Other instintive picks : Chelsea vs Bayern Munich. Pick Bayern Munich at +1/2 advantage.

Last night's results...

Last night's picks, FT Scoreline, Conclusion
Inter Milan -1, Inter Milan, 3-1, WIN

Champions League. 2nd Round. 2nd Leg

Inter Milan vs Porto(FLA: 1:1)

This is one match-up that Inter Milan must be eager for. Inter Milan is a much stronger team than its current league position suggests. It has been punished by its inability to convert dominance into win and thus end up being the ultimate "draw-specialist" worldwide. Against Porto, bookmakers have assigned an Asian Handicap of 1 goal, showing their confidence in Inter Milan progressing to the next round.

While Porto is last CL's holder, based on its current state, I cannot think of any reason on how it can by-pass Inter Milan. A lot of players have been changed from the CL winning team and its manager then, Jose Mourinho is no longer around. Although its leading the Portugese League, it is not an indication of any strength given that they lost 4-0 while hosting Nacional over the weekend.

Players on Inter Milan side are hitting form and they are a team capable of scoring from any situation. Veron is like Veron, Adriano is a dangerous man in front of goal post. He should be partnering Vieri, who is a lethal goal-poacher. I cannot see any reason as to how Inter Milan will let this match slip up.

Maximum stake...Inter Milan -1.

Last night's (horrible) results...

Last night's picks FT Scoreline Conclusion
AC Milan -1 AC Milan, 1-0 DRAW
Palermo -1/4 Udinese, 5-1 LOSS
Atalanta Lvl Atalanta, 1-0 WIN
Real Madrid -1/2 Getafe, 2-1 LOSS

Spanish La Liga

Getafe vs Real Madrid
One match to break the deadlock. Getafe is doing not too badly at home. Last time they played, they lost 2-0 to Real Madrid. Real need this win badly, just to keep pace with the leaders and I see them getting it.

David Beckham is not going to be playing, while Owen might play. A Real Madrid without Beckham seems like a good deal. They might just nick it by one goal.

Real Madrid -1/2

Italian Serie A Match Analysis

AC Milan vs Sampdoria
Think Sampdoria of ISA and think Everton of EPL. If you have been a crazed futbol fan, you should know what I mean. Both teams are the surprised package of their respective league, in line for Champions League next season. Whereas Everton had always been perenial relegation battlers, Sampdoria had seen far worst for the past ten years. Relegation and financial crisis, now they are back. Hanging onto the fourth position based on goal differences after Inter gain a point(lost 2 points) last night. They are performing pretty well, which is why the bookmakers are letting Sampdoria a one ball advantage for this match as Asian Handicap. They're probably warrant at least one-half ball last season. My personal view is that Sampdoria needs a break, I do not see them having the stability to hold on to their CL dreams, Palermo/Udinese seems more like it. But I'll talk about that later.

But back to reality, AC Milan on 2nd place has got 60 points, behind Jtus on pure goal differences. Sampdoria has got 47 points. 13 points is quite a gulf here and I think it speaks volume on the class of Jtus and AC Milan's performances this season. While its true that early this month, Sampdoria won away in Juventus, but whoever watching the game would have seen that its more of a case in Jtus slipping themselves. Looking at the way AC Milan play on San Siro, it would take a very optimestic punter to even think of gaining anything against them. They attack for 90 minutes, sound possession and good finishing. Ignore Crespo's fine scoring form, the thing about AC Milan is that any player can score.

Look at the following possible starting line-up as suggested from Goal.com.

Milan (4-3-1-2):
Dida; Stam, Nesta, Maldini, Pancaro; Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf; Kaka; Tomasson, Crespo

Sampdoria (4-4-2):
Antonioli; Zenoni, Pavan, Falcone, Pisano; Diana, Palombo, Volpi, Tonetto; Flachi, Kutuzov

I also expect AC Milan to be given a boast after their double win over Manchester Utd in the Champions League. Don't listen to speculations of fatigue cries. They are not playing up to 3 or more matches a week.

Whether you want to sit through the game and enjoy watching your team attack 90 minutes or to side the team that is trying to hold onto a draw. Its going to be your choice.

Palermo vs Udinese
This is a dog fight. Crucial game as both teams are fighting shoulder-to-shoulder on the way up. Palermo is leading by one point and franky speaking though, a victory by Palermo will not knock-out Udinese. It will only be 4 points, the season is still long.

Looking at stats so far, Palermo has scored 16 conceded 7 at home, Udinese scored 17 but conceded 17 away. That speaks volume about Palermo's home defence. Only Jtus has conceded as little goals at home at 7 goals. At the highest level, the secret to a good performance, is defence. Look at Chelsea, Barcelona, Juventus, AC Milan, Man Utd(all positive examples) and Real Madrid(negative example). With this kind of defence, Palermo can go far. They also normally play 4-4-1-1. Focus is on defence, hence as you can see, they are playing to their strategy and getting the desired results, its not based on luck.

On the other side, Udinese is not doing too badly. 17 goals and 17 conceded away simply means they are nil on goal difference. Every other team below Udinese is negative on away goal differences. This will be a tight affair. And a draw is highly likely.

Whichever team score first, should take the game. For this, I back home ground.

Atalanta vs Parma

I saw this on Goal.com. It saves me a lot of typing.

FORM GUIDE
Atalanta (Serie A – oldest result first): LLWLWDL
Atalanta’s results have been of a positive nature in comparison to their form before Christmas and many of the defeats suffered recently were undeserved.

Parma (Serie A – oldest result first): WLDLWLW
Parma generally have been picking up the right results in important matches, their recent losses have been against some of the most on form teams in the league.

But me thinks, its more of a draw game. Nevertheless, backing home on Asian Handicap is definitely a good choice.

Boxing Joe Picks...
AC Milan -1
Palermo -1/4
Atalanta Lvl

Results From Yesterday

Last night's picks FT Scoreline Conclusion
Arsenal -1/2 Arsenal, 1-0 WIN
Juventus -1/2 Juventus, 1-0 WIN
Leverkusen -1/2 Liverpool, 3-1 LOSS

CL 2nd Round. 2nd Leg. Part II

Last night's picks FT Scoreline Conclusion
Man U +1/4 AC Milan, 1-0 LOSS
Chelsea -1/2 Chelsea, 4-2 WIN
Lyon -1/2 Lyon, 7-2 WIN

Coming Up,
ARSENAL vs BAYERN MUNICH
JUVENTUS vs REAL MADRID
LEVERKUSEN vs LIVERPOOL
MONACO vs PSV

JUVENTUS vs REAL MADRID (First Leg Aggregate:0-1)
Like I have mentioned, AC Milan and Juventus, are VERY strong on home ground. One of my yet-to-be-proven theory is that on Asian Handicap every season, each time AC or Jtus play home, you throw an equal amount of dough on them, and you should end up with profit at end of the season. Used to be Man Utd, home and away, but not sure if that still holds now.
Anyway, Real Madrid is an eccentric team with all the Galaticos, they can seem mediocre(most of the times) and yet most times, perform when it matter most. Bring a one-goal advantage into this game, you bet they will trying to do what they do best to the classic Italian defence. Nevertheless, I see Juventus holding out with a win. Probably a 2-1 win for Jtus whereby Real Madrid processes onto next round automatically.

ARSENAL vs BAYERN MUNICH (FLA:1-3)
Arsenal on Highbury, its home ground which is small, plus an offensive Arsenal, prepare to see goals. I expect Arsenal to edge for a minimum of 2-0 scoreline, just so that they can go through automatically on away goal rules. They will seize home-ground advantage and attack from the first second, try to secure an early goal, pressurize the Germans, before finishing up with second or third. Arsenal, as you have known, defence has been very shaky lately. The only side-back could be that Bayern manages to sneak one or two in during their counter-attack but I can see the Gunners cover the whole of the tiny pitch tonight with their tireless runs at home. Arsenal has been deprived of European success for long time. Trust them to put everything into it.

LEVERKUSEN vs LIVERPOOL (FLA: 1-3)
Liverpool comes into this game with a 2 goal edge and I expect them to try to defend the lead. They do not have good away record in Europe, to start with, they aien't solid at home. Liverpool stands a very high chance of qualifying for next round though but I wouldn't count on them not to lose this match. I would definitely go for the Leverkusen win by at least a goal here, Liverpool to concede.

My picks:
JUVENTUS -1/2
ARSENAL -1/2
LEVERKUSEN -1/2

Champions League. 2nd Round. 2nd Leg

Another week of CL has begun. Great match line-ups.

Wednesday wee hrs,
AC MILAN vs MAN U
CHELSEA vs BARCELONA
LYON vs WERDER BREMEN (aka "Wonder Woman")

Thursday wee hrs,
ARSENAL vs BAYERN MUNICH
JUVENTUS vs REAL MADRID
LEVERKUSEN vs LIVERPOOL
MONACO vs PSV

Just for tonight,

AC MILAN vs MAN U
The Red Devils are in deficit of a goal while at home and now, have to go to San Siro and needs minimum of win to ensure CL play-on. Italian teams are very strong at home, especially Italian giant, AC Milan and Jtus. This is no mean feat. Man Utd seems to be hiccupping a bit over the weak weekend, drawing 0-0 away to Crystal Palace. Ruud Van Nisterooy has a good record for scoring in Europe games and since his return last week, has been quiet. Man Utd also has a good track record for pushing miracle and I see tonight as one of them. Man Utd has good built-up play but not very good finishing. The Wings are usually healthy, crosses tend to come in but they tend to lack finishing and creativity at times. AC Milan is a very solid-team. Very well-balanced and in fact, this 2nd-leg at home after one goal advantage, I can see them in the semi-finals of CL at least. I would side AC Milan to not lose this match, but they might not win, they do not need to. A draw is a good bet.

CHELSEA vs BARCA
Chelsea is unbeaten at home this season. Barca has not generally roar in England.
Barcelona has visited English clubs 22 times in Europe, only winning 4. They are unbeaten in their last 5 visits. Last 5 visits...thats a good record but all good things must come to an end. They have to be beaten this time round.

LYON vs WERDER BREMEN
Bookmakers are very confident that W.Bremen will not lose this match. W.Bremen played very well during the first leg, yet they lost 3-0 to a Lyon which took its chances well. Considering that this is their away round, W.Bremen needs a miracle to even draw the previous aggregate. Lyon just came out of a bad run, losing away to lowly Caen 1-0 over the weekend. Perhaps they were trying to preserve strength for this CL match. W.Bremen will definitely play offensive to stand a chance of qualification. However, we must not forget that German teams are generally stronger at home, not so impressive away. While it is a good choice to back Werder Bremen not to lose the game, which everyone will be going for. Expect the unexpected, that Lyon would absorb the attack and hit an early one or two goals to kill off the German's CL dreams.

My guesses:
Man U +1/4
Chelsea -1/2
Lyon -1/2

KICK OFF...

Boxing Joe is simply the soccer punting alter-ego of Tripleperiod.

Please note that BJ is not a professional punter. He simply enjoys watching the game and waging small amount of dough on his predictions. His predictions are NOT 100 percent accurate and as such, should NEVER be considered tips. He will not be responsible for any form of losses or gains from bets that are based on or referenced from his soccer predictions.

You are welcome to comment on his picks and even share your own.

Its all for the lurve'va the game. Viva la futbol!